The UK’s dependence on UK fruit and vegetable imports from countries acutely vulnerable to climate breakdown is storing up serious price and supply risks, according to a new report from the Food Foundation charity. The report, titled Farming for 5-a-Day: how resilient is the UK’s supply of fruit, veg and beans in a changing climate?, argues that chronic underinvestment in domestic horticulture has left Britain exposed at precisely the moment it can least afford to be.
The Problem With UK Fruit and Vegetable Imports
The numbers tell a blunt story. The UK imports 80% of its fruit and 47% of its vegetables, placing it among the most import-reliant large economies in Europe, more dependent than France, Germany or Spain. Around 40% of all food consumed in Britain is imported.
Crucially, those imports are concentrated in countries already feeling the heat. The Food Foundation found that 18 of the top 20 countries supplying the UK with healthy staple foods were rated moderately to severely vulnerable to climate breakdown. Spain alone accounts for 27% of UK fruit imports and 25% of its vegetable imports, according to a GWPF analysis of DEFRA statistics. Two-thirds of Spain, the same analysis notes, could be severely affected by desertification and accelerated soil erosion.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has forecast that without action to build resilience, higher temperatures will cause lower yields and heat stress across the Mediterranean, north Africa, and South and Central America. Those are, in effect, the UK’s fruit and vegetable supply chains.
A Self-Sufficiency Problem Decades in the Making
This is not a sudden crisis. A peer-reviewed study published in PMC found that the domestic contribution to total UK fruit and vegetable supply fell from 42% in 1987 to just 22% in 2013, while the number of major supplying countries rose from 12 to 21 over the same period. The UK has been quietly exporting its growing capacity for decades.
The Food Foundation’s own press release illustrates the absurdity with a single figure: avocados carry an Import Dependency Ratio of 108%, because Britain not only produces none domestically but also re-exports a significant volume. The IDR and Self-Sufficiency Ratio do not sum to 100% because they measure different aspects of food supply, the Food Foundation notes, citing DEFRA’s Horticultural Statistics 2024 and HMRC trade data.
Five of the UK’s nine most-purchased fruits, including apples, strawberries, blueberries, raspberries and pears, can be grown domestically. Yet the UK produces less than 40% of domestic consumption for four of those five. For vegetables, only carrots reach a genuinely high self-sufficiency ratio at 94%. Tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and broccoli all sit at roughly half domestic production.
Anna Taylor, executive director at the Food Foundation, put it plainly: ‘There is a risk [the impacts of climate breakdown] will drive up prices in the future, putting nutritious foods further out of reach for many, so it is important government takes action now to prevent this.’
I think Taylor is right to flag the distributional angle. Food price shocks do not fall evenly. Those on the lowest incomes spend the highest share of their budgets on food; when fresh produce becomes expensive, it is the first thing cut.
Cold Chains, Cyber Threats and a Government Catching Up
The risks extend beyond the farm gate. The UK Food Security Report 2024 (Theme 3) records that numerous retail facilities suffered refrigeration system failures during the 2022 heatwave, and warns that more extreme temperature events will increase spoilage risk across the cold chain. The National Audit Office has work in progress examining whether government has an adequate grip on those risks, noting that food is classified as one of 13 Critical National Infrastructures.
That classification has not always been acted upon. The Cold Chain Federation’s chief executive Phil Pluck warned, as reported by The Guardian in June 2026, that hackers had orchestrated approximately 10 attacks or attempted attacks on member companies in the preceding 18 months. His charge was direct: ‘We are recognised as critical national infrastructure by Russian cybercriminals, not by the UK government.’
Meanwhile, the UK Food Security Report 2024 (Theme 2) records a modest improvement: 58% of food consumed was domestically produced by value in 2023, up from 54% in 2020. Progress, but not enough to change the structural picture.
Ali Capper, who chairs the British Apples and Pears trade body and farms in Worcestershire, has a clear list of what growers need to expand production: ‘Certainty on continued and increased access to the seasonal workers scheme; water for food; an agile planning regulation; competitively priced energy. Growers also need market certainty, long-term agreements and profitable returns.’
The Food Foundation is calling on government to address those demands in its forthcoming Horticulture Sector Growth Plan. That plan is now the concrete test. Either it contains the investment and policy certainty growers are asking for, or the UK continues importing its climate risk along with its strawberries.
