Guernsey young people leaving the island is not a distant prospect but a present intention, with 36% of those surveyed in the island’s latest public health report saying they were certain they would go, and a further 37% unsure whether their future lay there at all.
The figures come from the 118th Medical Officer of Health Annual Report, formally titled ‘Shaping Tomorrow: The Voice of Future Generations’. It engaged approximately 200 young people aged 16 to 24 across Guernsey and Alderney, drawn from the Youth Forum, the Guernsey Institute, and the Sixth Form Centre.
Put the two figures together and you have nearly three-quarters of a surveyed generation either heading for the ferry or keeping their options open. That is not a disaffected minority. It is a structural problem wearing the clothes of an attitude survey.
Cost of Living and Careers Drive Guernsey Young People Leaving
The reasons are not subtle. Young people cited the high cost of living, housing, and off-island travel as both immediate pressures and longer-term deterrents, according to the States of Guernsey newsroom summary of the report. These are not abstract concerns: they limit independence now and shape expectations about whether staying is even viable.
Career opportunities, or the lack of them, featured prominently. So did social life, shopping options, and the weather. The winter earned particular scorn, with some young people describing it as a ‘snoozefest’, a period when affordable activities with friends become harder to find. Road transport was the most pressing day-to-day grievance: fuel costs, potholed roads, closures, and congestion.
On the credit side of the ledger, respondents valued safety, community, natural beauty, and beaches. These are real and genuine attachments. But they are also the kinds of things people say warmly about a place they are leaving.
Feeling Unheard Compounds the Problem
Beneath the practical grievances sits something harder to fix with a new bus route or a youth centre. Many respondents said they did not feel the government listened to their concerns, and that they had little influence over decisions shaping their lives.
Medical Officer of Health Dr Brink did not shy away from this. ‘They have also told us that they do not always feel heard,’ she said. ‘Listening is important, but listening alone is not enough, we must also act on what they are telling us.’
The report itself is candid about the consequences: ‘This sense of limited agency may contribute to disengagement and reduced well-being, while also shaping expectations about the future.’
Dr Brink described young islanders as the ‘next generation of our workforce and community leaders’, arguing their voices should be central to decisions about the island’s future. The report identifies strengthening youth participation as a key priority for the States of Guernsey, both to improve decision-making and to foster a sense of agency and belonging.
Education drew criticism too. Some students pointed to a shortage of teachers for specific subjects, a high turnover of staff, and the poor condition of certain school buildings. These are complaints that imply a system under strain, not a generation that is simply restless.
The 117th Medical Officer of Health Report, published on 21 January 2025, had already flagged that those aged 16 to 24 were at greater risk of poor health outcomes than other age groups. The 118th report builds on that picture. Youth disengagement and poor well-being are not separate problems from population decline: they are the same problem at different stages.
I’d argue the island’s leaders would do well to read ‘Shaping Tomorrow’ less as a youth consultation and more as an early warning system. When nearly three-quarters of a generation either plan to leave or will not commit to staying, the window for action is already narrower than the numbers suggest. The question is not whether Guernsey can retain its young people, but whether it is willing to change enough to give them a reason to stay.
